Since the end of last month, the polyester factory has promoted a wave of goods, polyester production and sales have maintained a continuous downturn, the average domestic polyester filament production and sales of 43.9% this week, and last week this data is only 40%.

In the face of rising raw materials, it is clearly the "silver four" season, weaving enterprises do not pay the bill, why is this? How do we keep them buying silk?

Polyester factory: high start-up, high inventory

While production and sales are depressed, the opening probability of polyester factories is not low.

In terms of construction, a large amount of demand before the Spring Festival has been released in advance, polyester factories have cleared inventory, and the Spring Festival and the holiday still maintain a high operating rate, and the polyester production is too high. According to the data of Longzhong information, the total output of domestic polyester filament in the first quarter was about 8.84 million tons, an increase of 46% year-on-year, and the device operating rate was basically maintained at a high of 90%.

In terms of inventory, the current inventory of polyester filament is relatively high, near 30 days, but considering the current downstream weaving probability has increased to more than 70%, after the downstream construction in March, the rigid demand exists in March and April, supporting the short-term polyester filament factory temporarily not affected by inventory oppression, but it needs to be considered that the demand gradually turns to the off-season, and every May Day holiday. Downstream or partial production reduction holiday expectations, as well as poor new orders, downstream start confidence is insufficient, whether there is a production reduction expectation in the future, demand is expected to be weak, will become the main source of pressure for future inventory increase.

In terms of profit, as of April 18, the profit of polyester filament POY150D/48F is -102.8 yuan/ton, the profit of FDY150D/96F is 47.2 yuan/ton, and the profit of DTY150D/48F is 175 yuan/ton, which means that the current mainstream specifications of polyester filament are mostly running near the break-even line. During the year, raw materials are generally weak, according to the reason, profits should be in the polyester end, but the supply of polyester filament is high, the demand is generally rigid, and every downstream procurement cycle, traders and factories shipping prices are gradually falling, and processing fees are not good.

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